Last week, the U.S. Forest Service announced that it will be closing three-quarters of its research facilities as part of a reorganization. Now, experts are not only worried about the number of scientists who might be leaving the agency, but also about how the disruption could affect the gathering and dissemination of crucial wildfire and climate change data.
The restructuring comes as parts of the U.S. face what is expected to be a catastrophic wildfire season. The most recent wildland fire outlook shows that wildfire activity is already āwell above average,ā with more than 16,000 wildfires reported this year.
Under the reorganization plan, the Forest Service will close 57 of 77 research facilities, as well as move its headquarters from Washington, D.C., to Salt Lake City, Utah.Ā
It will also close all nine of its regional offices; some states will then get their own offices, but others will be consolidated.
Changes will affect firefighting capabilities
The Forest Service oversees 193 million acres of forests and grasslands across the country. It manages timber harvesting, researches how forests can provide clean air and water to communities, monitors climate impacts over time, and works on wildfire prediction and risk management, among other tasks.Ā
Julian Reyes, chief of staff at the Union of Concerned Scientists and previously a federal government civil servant who worked directly with Forest Service R&D scientists on climate research, says the move doesnāt make any sense, given the wildfire season weāre heading into.
Reyes also fears that some research tools will disappear with this reorganization, like the one that maps which seeds should be planted where, based on whether theyāll survive future climate impacts like precipitation and temperature.Ā Another one is āessentially a menu of optionsā for decision-makers to look at how to adapt to climate change and new wildfire patterns.
State agencies and even utility companies also use Forest Service data to mitigate, prepare for, and respond to wildfires.Ā
āThere are a lot of tools and data that underlie what firefighters are using when they battle wildfires,ā Reyes says. āThe dismantling of that [research and development] part of the Forest Service will affect firefighting capabilities.āĀ
Mishal Thadani, CEO of Rhizome, a wildfire intelligence company that works with utility companies and grid operators, is particularly concerned about Forest Service research stations in California and Oregon closing, since those states lead in terms of the number of fires and acreage burned.
āWhen those data sources go stale or disappear, it gets harder for utilities to make informed decisions about grid resilience planning,ā he says via email.
Itās also not data that private companies like Rhizome can easily replace. Though Thadani says his climate resilience planning platform is working on internal modeling capabilities, that still depends on metrics that typically come from federal agencies.
āOver time, as existing data layers go stale and arenāt replaced, the barrier gets meaningfully higher for any private-sector company trying to build useful products in this space,ā he says.
A feeling of dread
In a press release, the Forest Service said that the headquarters relocation will āmove leadership closer to the forests and communities it serves,ā and that the larger restructuring is a ācommon-sense approachā to its mission.
But many of the headquarters staff are likely already out West, āout in the forest that they are supposed to manage,ā Reyes says.
Others at the D.C. headquarters help communicate policies coming out of the White House so that state employees can understand them.Ā āIf you remove those people, then who helps produce a consistent set of policies or helps people interpret [them]?ā Reyes asks. āI donāt know if the states have that capacity.ā
Reyes says heās heard people in the agency say that no one wants this reorganization, and that they feel ādreadā about the changes. During President Donald Trumpās first term, a similar relocation plan for the Bureau of Land Management spurred more than 87% of employees to quit or retire.
Another assault on science
The Trump administration has already taken steps to dismantle and downsize the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the Environmental Protection Agency, and has called to dismantle the National Center for Atmospheric Research.Ā
āThis is just another pattern in this administrationās assault on science,ā Reyes says.Ā
Heās concerned about the potential loss of institutional knowledge, because people may leave the agency. The U.S. government has already lost more than 10,000 STEM PhDs since Donald Trump took office. The Forest Service itself already lost nearly 6,000 employees because of Elon Muskās Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) cuts and early retirement offers.
The Forest Service is considered the worldās leading wildfire research and management agency. Thatās now under threat.Ā āThere is no other organization who could fill that gap, at least in the next decade,ā Reyes says. And it would take decades, he adds, to replace what the government is doing now.
āThe Forest Service will essentially no longer be the worldās leading wildfire research agency,ā he adds. āThey will be hamstrung forever, because they wonāt have the right people, the right research capability at the right research stations, and so weāll always be feeling these effects, probably for multiple generations. Thatās whatās really sad about this.ā